Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3cd3…638a
other · 139 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$57 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$58 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses99 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)135 / 139
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 4 History 135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 (High)? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Eintracht Spandau 89¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs BIG 73¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 1 Winner Estral Esports 70¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $4 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $6 +$1 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +11%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +13%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Will Maria Natale win the 2026 San Nicola La Strada mayoral election? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -48%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -32%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $6 $0 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +7%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 1 above $360? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$3 -56%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $600? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $610? Jun 05 $7 −$2 -26%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +8%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +9%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +10%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 4? Jun 04 $7 +$1 +7%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +6%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 $0 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -91%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Paloma Valencia place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $4 $0 +6%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election? Jun 04 $4 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$18
other 22% −$11
crypto 17% −$21
finance 11% −$6
tech 8% −$2
politics 7% −$1
world 3% +$2
weather 3% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 91¢ $5 6h
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 9h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $5 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $4 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 36h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 98¢ $4 44h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 92¢ $5 2d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 9? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 9? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 2d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 3d
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 99¢ $4 3d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 94¢ $5 3d
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 96¢ $5 3d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 90¢ $4 3d
Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary electi BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? SELL Up 63¢ $4 4d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 88¢ $6 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 4d
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.9% -18.5% 72% 9% -19.0%
≤30d 135 -6.9% -15.8% 73% 13% -15.8%
≤90d 135 -6.9% -15.8% 73% 13% -15.8%
all 135 -6.9% -15.8% 73% 13% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 13% -15.8%
10% -23.8% 1% -23.8%
15% -31.2% 0% -31.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.24 · official $21.49 (match) · 277 history records