Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cd0…0073 crypto 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$240 (-23%) realized −$246 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$79
other 37% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤30d 20 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +7.3%
≤90d 20 +29.5% +17.2% 50% 50% +7.3%
all 47 +3.1% -6.7% 36% 36% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 36% -32.3%
10% -15.6% 36% -38.8%
15% -23.8% 34% -44.7%
20% -31.2% 30% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$246
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage347d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $28 $6 −$22 (-77%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 51¢ 2¢ $35 $2 −$33 (-95%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 12PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 3PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 4PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 12PM ET Up 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +172%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$32 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$23 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$40 +753%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $130 −$125 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $38 −$22 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $56 −$37 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $99 −$36 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 24 $6 +$2 +38%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,475+ in February? Feb 23 $0 $0 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 23 $0 +$1 +223%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 3PM ET Feb 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 12PM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 22 $44 +$16 +35%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 4PM ET Feb 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 21, 7AM ET Feb 21 $0 +$1 +509%
XRP Up or Down - July 16, 5PM ET Jul 16 $21 +$19 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 5, 12PM ET Jul 05 $25 +$54 +216%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Jul 05 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Jul 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 8PM ET Jul 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6PM ET Jul 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 4PM ET Jul 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 12PM ET Jul 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 41m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 58m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.14 · official $40.61 · 279 history records