Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cca…8323 crypto 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+3%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate61%188W / 119L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$399
14 days+$205
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$137
sports 32% +$480
other 9% −$238
world 3% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +28.9% +16.6% 62% 50% +10.2%
≤30d 307 -8.4% -17.2% 61% 37% -9.0%
≤90d 307 -8.4% -17.2% 61% 37% -9.0%
all 307 -8.4% -17.2% 61% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 37% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 31% -17.7%
15% -32.3% 23% -25.7%
20% -39.0% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses188 / 119
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)307 / 307
History coverage21d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 307 Trades
no open positions (89 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $44 +$35 +79%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $79 −$78 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $57 +$2 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $41 −$4 -10%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $44 +$71 +162%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $68 +$27 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 +$18 +63%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 +$88 +246%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $25 +$14 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -96%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $17 +$16 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$83 +324%
Set 1 Winner: Perricard vs Moutet Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$95 +330%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +83%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $49 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19 +$11 +55%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $13 +$16 +121%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$7 -36%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $22 −$11 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $171 −$54 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$15 +71%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$225 +875%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$28 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$5 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 1¢ $1 7m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 21¢ $18 12m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 63¢ $78 30m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $26 1h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) SELL Pegula 98¢ $207 2h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 95¢ $200 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $79 17h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 34¢ $1 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 32¢ $27 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 34¢ $31 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniel Altmaier 60¢ $31 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 49¢ $26 21h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 4¢ $3 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 13¢ $10 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $34 23h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $30 24h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 33¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $9 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 683 history records