Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3cca…c831 other 563 markets active 2h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,270 (+4%) realized +$2,304 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%206W / 352L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$258
7 days−$669
14 days−$461
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$2,716
world 6% +$909
crypto 2% −$318
politics 2% −$451
tech 1% −$538
sports 1% −$309
finance 1% −$2
weather 0% −$88
economics 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 27% -46.7%
≤30d 48 +7.5% -2.8% 31% 29% -18.4%
≤90d 169 +7.9% -2.3% 34% 32% -6.5%
all 558 -5.0% -14.1% 37% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 32% -6.8%
10% -22.3% 29% -15.7%
15% -29.8% 24% -23.9%
20% -36.7% 22% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$63 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$2,304
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses206 / 352
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)558 / 563
History coverage246d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $99 $126 +$27 (+27%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $55 −$45 (-45%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $155 −$22 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $104 −$101 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$63 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $42 +$86 +208%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $138 +$155 +112%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$137 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $42 +$120 +287%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $203 −$203 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $150 +$41 +27%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $180 +$719 +400%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $157 −$145 -92%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $100 −$51 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $31 +$353 +1120%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $63 +$370 +590%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 01 $912 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $80 +$120 +150%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $607 −$607 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $99 −$99 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $200 −$113 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $100 +$124 +124%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $197 −$197 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $103 −$103 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $400 +$59 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $178 +$29 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $195 +$434 +223%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $83 −$63 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 8¢ $50 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $104 3h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 13h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 16h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 17¢ $41 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $112 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $105 28h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 29h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 30h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $163 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $104 42h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $46 45h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $49 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $42 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $61 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 22¢ $51 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $77 4d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $123 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.55 · official $213.86 (match) · 1650 history records