Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cca…e8f7 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$74 (-13%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$61
world 14% −$10
sports 8% −$5
politics 5% −$2
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% −$6
crypto 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -15.1% -23.1% 4% 0% -22.8%
≤30d 54 -15.1% -23.1% 4% 0% -22.8%
≤90d 54 -15.1% -23.1% 4% 0% -22.8%
all 54 -15.1% -23.1% 4% 0% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 0% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 0% -30.2%
15% -37.2% 0% -37.0%
20% -43.4% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $15 −$7 -49%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 15 $26 −$6 -24%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 15 2 Jun 15 $23 −$2 -9%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -6%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -34%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -59%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 14 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 39 and 41 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $24 −$4 -16%
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $9 −$2 -21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will Colombia (13) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 F Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Netherlands (8) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -39%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 13 $14 −$1 -8%
World Cup Goal Contributions H2H: Vitinha vs. Pedri Jun 13 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Will USA be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage Jun 13 $22 −$9 -42%
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group S Jun 13 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -9%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Brazil be the highest-scoring team in Group C during the Group St Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Czechia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $9 −$8 -91%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $21 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $27 −$8 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL Yes 57¢ $14 1h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 60¢ $15 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 71¢ $14 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 71¢ $14 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 SELL No 35¢ $7 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 BUY No 66¢ $15 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 SELL No 42¢ $7 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY No 44¢ $8 12h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on SELL Yes 65¢ $16 12h
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY Yes 68¢ $17 12h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL No 37¢ $9 13h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 35¢ $9 13h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 SELL Yes 59¢ $12 17h
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY Yes 59¢ $12 17h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 15 2 SELL Yes 86¢ $21 17h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $167.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY Yes 94¢ $23 17h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 18h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 18h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 18h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $13 18h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 20h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $96 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 20h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 28h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 29h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 37h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 37h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 37h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records