Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3cc3…fd93 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8 (+21%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$8
world 13% −$5
other 13% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +42.2% +28.6% 59% 59% +10.4%
≤30d 22 +42.2% +28.6% 59% 59% +10.4%
≤90d 22 +42.2% +28.6% 59% 59% +10.4%
all 22 +42.2% +28.6% 59% 59% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.6% 59% +10.4%
10% +16.3% 59% -0.2%
15% +5.1% 59% -9.8%
20% -5.2% 55% -18.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$2 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +275%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +250%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 35h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 36¢ $1 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.32 · official $5.32 (match) · 36 history records