Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:28:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3cbd…d7a6 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,224 (-7%) realized −$994 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%32W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$193
7 days+$190
14 days+$190
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$1,031
other 8% +$58
crypto 1% +$88
sports 0% −$25
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 53% +11.4%
≤30d 15 -4.1% -13.2% 53% 53% +11.4%
≤90d 22 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 45% -21.7%
all 73 -20.6% -28.1% 44% 32% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 32% -14.2%
10% -35.0% 27% -22.4%
15% -41.3% 26% -29.9%
20% -47.1% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$70 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$1,346
Realized−$994
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses32 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions18
Markets (closed)73 / 91
History coverage270d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $400 $406 +$6 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 98¢ $300 $359 +$59 (+20%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 57¢ $160 $150 −$10 (-6%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 40¢ 16¢ $100 $40 −$60 (-60%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $74 $1 −$73 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Macron out by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $132 +$100 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $110 +$15 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$23 +223%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$28 +27%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$73 +72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 17 $200 −$7 -3%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 17 $40 −$40 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? Apr 17 $300 −$300 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $300 +$37 +12%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $200 +$97 +48%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $270 −$255 -94%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $100 −$92 -92%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $275 −$254 -92%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Mar 27 $80 −$61 -76%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 20 $100 −$26 -26%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? Mar 18 $310 +$24 +8%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by November 30? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump shake hands with Isaac Herzog at the World Economic Forum? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $139 −$43 -31%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 18 $325 −$321 -99%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Mar 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 13 $200 −$50 -25%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? Mar 10 $4,269 −$416 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Mar 10 $191 −$12 -6%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Mar 10 $400 −$12 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Mar 10 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 9? Mar 09 $410 +$159 +39%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $300 −$299 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Mar 08 $275 +$134 +49%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 07 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $267 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7? Mar 07 $40 +$5 +13%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 03 $700 +$69 +10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $200 +$18 +9%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 01 $977 +$602 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $33 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 25h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 26h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $110 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $132 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 4d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $300 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $400 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $193 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $200 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,345.73 · official $1,345.73 (match) · 255 history records