Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cb7…1a88 weather 1122 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-1%) realized −$292 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%511W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day40.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$47
14 days−$57
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$753
sports 1% +$261
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +16.1% +5.1% 52% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 413 +1.0% -8.6% 49% 46% -9.8%
≤90d 1120 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 43% -11.0%
all 1120 +0.1% -9.5% 46% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 43% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 39% -19.5%
15% -26.0% 35% -27.3%
20% -33.3% 31% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses511 / 609
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1120 / 1122
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day40.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 51¢ 36¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 213 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$73 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$11 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$6 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +287%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$27 +606%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $278 +$20 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 +$9 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$10 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$16 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$23 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$28 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$5 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$8 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$5 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$18 +386%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$46 +210%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$7 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $27 +$19 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$10 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$9 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$17 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$15 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $66 11m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $12 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 16m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $9 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 51¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.69 · official $5.69 (match) · 3500 history records