Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb7…943e sports 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$211 (-5%) realized −$208 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%104W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day87.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$46
14 days−$174
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$80
weather 27% −$99
other 4% −$65
world 1% −$4
politics 0% +$8
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -5.6% -14.6% 17% 12% -11.9%
≤30d 413 -8.3% -17.0% 24% 22% -13.1%
≤90d 423 -8.3% -17.0% 25% 22% -14.4%
all 423 -8.3% -17.0% 25% 22% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover87.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 22% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 20% -22.6%
15% -32.2% 18% -30.1%
20% -38.9% 14% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$4 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses104 / 319
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions11
Markets (closed)423 / 434
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day87.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Boisson 51¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Lois Boisson 50¢ 50¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) Boisson 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 23.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro Jun 15 $40 −$2 -6%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $14 −$1 -7%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro Jun 15 $41 −$3 -8%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Sara Bejlek vs. Emma Navarro: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $13 −$1 -7%
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $25 −$1 -3%
Poznan: Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri Jun 14 $25 −$1 -4%
Set Handicap: Olivieri (-1.5) vs Shevchenko (+1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$1 -2%
Julia Grabher vs. Nuria Brancaccio: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Brancaccio (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Gorgodze (-1.5) vs Semenistaja (+1.5) Jun 14 $16 −$1 -3%
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Genaro Alberto Olivieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $45 −$4 -8%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $27 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Jovic (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Kudermetova vs Kraus Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $11 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $101 +$4 +4%
Set Handicap: Kudermetova (-1.5) vs Kraus (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Polina Kudermetova vs. Sinja Kraus: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 −$1 -3%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $17 $0 -3%
Kudermetova vs. Kraus: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $18 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Munar Jun 14 $30 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $30 $0 -2%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Montgomery vs. Krejcikova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -3%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Krejcikova Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $38 +$13 +34%
Nikola Bartunkova vs. Coco Gauff: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $30 $0 -2%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Bartunkova vs. Gauff: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Nottingham Open: Janice Tjen vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Kamilla Rakhimo Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Glinka/Sakellaridis vs Bublik/Kyrgios Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$13 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $0 20m
Set Handicap: Boisson (-1.5) vs Yastremska (+1.5) BUY Boisson 50¢ $9 36m
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 38m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $0 40m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Lois Boisson 49¢ $0 40m
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 46m
Lajal vs. Blanchet: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 46m
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 57m
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 57m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Boisson 51¢ $10 57m
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 57m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Boisson 51¢ $10 57m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Boisson 51¢ $10 57m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $5 58m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) BUY Boisson 50¢ $10 58m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $9 58m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $3 58m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $9 58m
Boisson vs. Yastremska: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 58m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $8 58m
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Lois Boisson 50¢ $8 58m
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Set Handicap: Bejlek (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) SELL Bejlek 49¢ $9 24h
Set 1 Winner: Bejlek vs Navarro SELL Bejlek 49¢ $38 24h
Bejlek vs. Navarro: Match O/U 21.5 SELL Over 49¢ $13 24h
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Emma Navarro SELL Sara Bejlek 49¢ $37 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.77 · official $152.76 (match) · 3500 history records