Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cb7…f755 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$125 (+13%) realized +$152 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$70
14 days+$154
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$16
sports 25% +$148
crypto 15% −$27
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -14.2% -22.4% 33% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 70 +13.9% +3.1% 34% 34% +10.6%
≤90d 70 +13.9% +3.1% 34% 34% +10.6%
all 70 +13.9% +3.1% 34% 34% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 34% +10.6%
10% -6.8% 33% +0.0%
15% -15.8% 33% -9.6%
20% -24.0% 29% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions14
Markets (closed)70 / 90
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+18%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+64%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 82¢ 8¢ $25 $3 −$22 (-90%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 35¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$9 +46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -45%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +211%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $15 +$36 +237%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$33 +163%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$64 +416%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -13%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$21 +203%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$14 -89%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +236%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$23 +84%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 35¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL 94¢ $18 3h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 51¢ $10 8h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total BUY 27¢ $5 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Christian Pulis BUY 31¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Vinícius Júnior: 3+ goals BUY 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.08 · official $219.10 (match) · 136 history records