Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cb7…cf4c crypto 940 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-4%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate35%415W / 766L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day157.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$544
7 days−$584
14 days−$700
30 days−$843
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$304
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-45.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 566 -56.6% -60.7% 32% 16% -58.3%
≤30d 1181 -39.7% -45.5% 35% 15% -33.9%
≤90d 1181 -39.7% -45.5% 35% 15% -33.9%
all 1181 -39.7% -45.5% 35% 15% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover157.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.5% 15% -33.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.7% 6% -40.2%
15% -55.5% 3% -46.0%
20% -59.8% 2% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses415 / 766
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1181 / 940
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day157.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1181 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records