Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3cb7…c94b other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$272 (+0%) realized +$272 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%30W / 103L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$15
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$291
politics 41% −$48
sports 13% +$594
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% +$4
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -8.7% -17.4% 11% 4% -10.3%
all 133 +2.1% -7.6% 23% 14% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 14% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 14% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 11% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$957) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$10 · ×4.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses30 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage125d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $507 $507 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,156 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,842 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $779 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,614 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $2,294 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $307 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,914 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,918 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,221 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,817 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in May? May 19 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $979 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $2,820 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $957 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $937 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,774 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $911 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $162 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $282 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,913 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,638 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,574 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,939 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $865 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $2,391 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $3,813 −$4 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $507 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $564 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $884 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $888 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $889 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $778 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $779 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $787 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $788 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $826 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $799 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $800 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $551 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $552 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $779 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $474 13d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $475 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $611 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $612 13d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $636 16d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $637 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $454 19d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $455 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $577 19d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $578 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $430 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $506.58 · official $506.58 (match) · 432 history records