Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb6…0f8f weather 139 markets active 6h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (165 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26,652 (-18%) realized −$26,676 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate99%126W / 1L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$1,078per market
Trades / day165.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13,812now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$7,952
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (165 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 127 +12.0% +1.4% 99% 3% -4.3%
≤90d 127 +12.0% +1.4% 99% 3% -4.3%
all 127 +12.0% +1.4% 99% 3% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover165.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.4% 3% -4.3%
10% -8.3% 3% -13.4%
15% ← realistic here -17.2% 3% -21.8%
20% -25.3% 3% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$1,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$3,024 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$13,812
Realized−$26,676
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses126 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)127 / 139
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1,078
Trades / day165.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,650 $5,653 +$4 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 29? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,900 $3,910 +$10 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,800 $1,803 +$3 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $940 $942 +$2 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? No 98¢ 100¢ $308 $313 +$5 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $210 $210 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $130 $130 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 29 $3,613 +$147 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 29 $240 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 28? Jun 29 $1,311 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 27? Jun 29 $5,261 +$19 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 28? Jun 29 $120 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 29 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 29 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 29 $2,015 +$97 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 29 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 28? Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 27? Jun 29 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 26? Jun 29 $740 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? Jun 29 $2,240 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 26? Jun 29 $750 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 29 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 28? Jun 29 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Jun 29 $2,391 +$13 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 29 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 26? Jun 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 26? Jun 29 $80 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 29 $540 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 28? Jun 29 $690 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2,400 +$6 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 26 $2,300 +$5 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 25? Jun 26 $890 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 25? Jun 26 $410 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1,100 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1,200 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 24 Jun 25 $2,930 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $2,201 +$20 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1,131 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 23 Jun 24 $530 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 23 $610 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 22? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 23 $1,800 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 22 Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 22 $574 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 22 $5,371 +$19 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $310 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 22 $1,180 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19? Jun 22 $2,241 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 22 $630 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 22 $130 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 22 $1,563 +$21 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 22 $190 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,811.57 · official $13,811.57 (match) · 3500 history records