Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb5…d73f crypto 549 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (241 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,913 (+28%) realized +$4,913 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%220W / 329L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day241.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$692
7 days+$3,471
14 days+$4,483
30 days+$4,483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (241 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 +3.5% -6.4% 49% 47% +14.7%
≤30d 549 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 37% +14.8%
≤90d 549 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 37% +14.8%
all 549 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 37% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover241.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 37% +14.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 34% +3.8%
15% -28.1% 30% -6.2%
20% -35.1% 24% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$17 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,913
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses220 / 329
Open positions0
Markets (closed)549 / 549
History coverage11d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day241.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 549 Trades
no open positions (276 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $95 −$40 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $136 +$40 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $46 +$205 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$89 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $18 +$213 +1178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$16 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $47 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $35 +$28 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $56 +$29 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $4 +$6 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $132 +$26 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 27 $82 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $109 +$57 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $60 +$34 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $92 −$88 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $19 +$8 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $84 +$161 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $75 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $74 −$70 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $160 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$5 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $81 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $47 +$31 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $102 +$60 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $15 −$14 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $68 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2973 history records