Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cb3…3f31 sports 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$44 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%83W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$48
14 days+$135
30 days+$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$65
world 1% −$21
other 1% +$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.2% +3.3% 67% 58% -25.4%
≤30d 71 +2.0% -7.7% 54% 52% +1.7%
≤90d 100 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 52% -5.9%
all 158 +5.4% -4.7% 53% 49% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 49% -7.8%
10% -13.8% 48% -16.6%
15% -22.1% 47% -24.7%
20% -29.8% 41% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses83 / 75
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage236d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 62¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) Jun 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$15 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$4 +43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $157 +$78 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $15 +$13 +86%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $17 +$18 +102%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $45 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$10 +50%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$24 +78%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $13 +$17 +127%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$9 +185%
ITF Maanshan: Tsung Hao Huang vs Dong Ju Kim Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 09 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$7 +66%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $15 +$15 +100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $9 +$6 +73%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs TYLOO (+3.5) Jun 08 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$10 +83%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 +$8 +119%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$15 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $20 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 57¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 58¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 58¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 62¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $55 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 55¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner SELL Ursa 48¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 72¢ $40 2d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 34¢ $5 2d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Ursa (+3.5) BUY Ursa 99¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 59¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 69¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 14¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 66¢ $157 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 44¢ $8 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 34¢ $8 9d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $35 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $15 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 44¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 100¢ $175 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.24 · official $104.24 (match) · 301 history records