Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cb3…f8d9 other 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,645 (+1%) realized +$1,643 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 113L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$871per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$164
politics 32% −$51
sports 10% +$1,878
world 4% −$68
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% +$32
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 54 +0.8% -8.8% 9% 4% -7.7%
all 148 +2.1% -7.6% 24% 12% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 12% -8.3%
10% -16.5% 11% -17.1%
15% -24.5% 11% -25.1%
20% -31.9% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,273) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$6 · ×10.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.39 per $1 lost it wins $3.39
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$914
Realized+$1,643
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)148 / 150
History coverage168d
Avg bet$871
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $650 $652 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $261 $261 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $301 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,710 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $845 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,553 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,386 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $984 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,152 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,720 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,233 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $180 +$90 +50%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,167 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $403 +$1 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,818 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,015 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 20 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,217 −$2 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $1,785 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $566 +$1 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $5,365 −$5 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,570 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $2,819 −$2 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,134 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 02 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $261 1h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $221 4h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $221 7h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $388 45h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $389 47h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $301 47h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $301 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $417 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $258 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $258 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $249 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $249 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $425 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $426 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $650 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 12d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $813 13d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $844 13d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $845 13d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $983 15d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $985 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 15d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $983 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $984 16d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $911 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $912 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $913.50 · official $913.50 (match) · 604 history records