Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cb2…507a sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$55 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%27W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,619now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$252
7 days−$894
14 days−$730
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$363
other 30% +$148
crypto 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -20.0% -27.7% 41% 41% -28.2%
≤30d 50 -9.0% -17.7% 42% 42% -11.9%
≤90d 66 -10.3% -18.8% 41% 41% -12.2%
all 66 -10.3% -18.8% 41% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 41% -12.2%
10% -26.6% 38% -20.6%
15% -33.7% 36% -28.3%
20% -40.2% 27% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$77 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$1,619
Realized−$55
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses27 / 39
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions18
Markets (closed)66 / 84
History coverage50d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $302 $347 +$45 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $226 $215 −$11 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $124 $166 +$42 (+34%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $200 $157 −$43 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $154 $134 −$20 (-13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $87 $110 +$22 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $111 $91 −$20 (-18%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 24¢ $120 $57 −$63 (-53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+57%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+52%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 30¢ $5 $22 +$17 (+336%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $16 −$6 (-28%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Portugal 13¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $37 +$83 +223%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 +$51 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $111 +$85 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$297 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $122 −$120 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $152 +$167 +109%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $302 +$48 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $76 +$71 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $351 +$51 +14%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $26 +$113 +442%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $202 +$88 +44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $178 −$175 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $156 +$49 +31%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $51 +$59 +117%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$66 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $202 +$106 +52%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$34 +67%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $26 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $47 −$46 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $162 −$160 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $121 +$55 +46%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $51 +$84 +165%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $67 −$66 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $258 +$558 +216%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $61 +$169 +276%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $84 −$82 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 55m
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 13¢ $15 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $122 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $37 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $51 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $111 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 23h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $302 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $76 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 47h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 49¢ $122 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $152 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 71¢ $100 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $76 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 76¢ $151 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 77¢ $151 2d
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $26 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $76 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $101 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $351 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,619.23 · official $1,619.90 (match) · 187 history records