Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cb1…8d41 crypto 719 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$593 (+1%) realized −$12,585 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%530W / 295L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,503
7 days−$11,121
14 days−$11,192
30 days−$11,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,974
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -6.5% -15.4% 60% 49% -61.6%
≤30d 633 -7.2% -16.1% 61% 51% -60.3%
≤90d 633 -7.2% -16.1% 61% 51% -60.3%
all 825 -6.1% -15.1% 64% 55% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 55% -27.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 33% -34.4%
15% -30.6% 19% -40.7%
20% -37.4% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$85 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses530 / 295
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)825 / 719
History coverage110d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 825 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $522 $0 −$522 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $627 $0 −$627 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $207 $0 −$207 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $415 $0 −$415 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $627 −$627 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 4, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2,399 −$2,399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$274 +253202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$74 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $493 −$493 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $998 −$998 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $119 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $128 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $51 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $8 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records