Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cb0…9db9 crypto 1591 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$398 (-1%) realized −$319 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%1511W / 162L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$951
7 days−$1,012
14 days−$1,145
30 days−$1,288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$160
world 17% −$64
other 3% −$231
economics 2% −$64
politics 1% −$1
tech 1% −$4
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -91.9% -92.7% 1% 0% -28.1%
≤30d 128 -68.4% -71.4% 4% 0% -20.6%
≤90d 1673 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 0% -12.7%
all 1673 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 0% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 0% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 0% -21.0%
15% -30.2% 0% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$319
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1511 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1673 / 1591
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1673 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 70¢ 42¢ $140 $85 −$55 (-39%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 78¢ 72¢ $55 $51 −$4 (-7%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $55 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $164 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $164 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $150 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $176 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $177 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $150 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $148 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $148 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 58¢ $106 4d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY Yes 58¢ $108 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 25¢ $13 4d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 31¢ $40 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $79 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $37 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $117 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 41¢ $99 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 41¢ $99 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.79 · official $135.79 (match) · 3500 history records