Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3cb0…ac10 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-0%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%11W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$8
politics 17% −$4
sports 8% −$70
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -2.6% -11.9% 11% 8% -9.8%
all 101 -2.6% -11.9% 11% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 8% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses11 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage92d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $137 $137 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $260 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $34 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $465 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 05 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $258 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $257 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $476 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $227 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $235 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $236 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $233 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $232 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $485 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $247 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $231 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $254 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $250 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $452 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $248 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $651 −$1 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $445 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $137 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 2d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 10d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 21d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 22d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 25d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $45 27d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 28d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $237 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.51 · official $136.51 (match) · 284 history records