Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 40 History 154 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$60
14 days+$21,368
30 days+$20,754
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $3,793 $4,043 +$250 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $3,453 $3,601 +$148 (+4%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,523 $2,546 +$22 (+1%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,100 $2,135 +$35 (+2%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,980 $2,040 +$60 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,849 $1,902 +$53 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,523 $1,676 +$153 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $1,730 $1,669 −$61 (-4%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,500 $1,566 +$66 (+4%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $1,263 $1,389 +$125 (+10%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 84¢ $1,407 $1,366 −$41 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 95¢ $1,097 $1,158 +$61 (+6%)
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,114 +$114 (+11%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $1,000 $1,036 +$36 (+4%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $890 $888 −$2 (-0%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 43¢ 63¢ $508 $757 +$249 (+49%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $658 $679 +$21 (+3%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $695 $676 −$18 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $725 $676 −$49 (-7%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $608 $611 +$3 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $530 $546 +$16 (+3%)
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $450 $461 +$11 (+3%)
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $404 $413 +$9 (+2%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $338 $343 +$5 (+1%)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $192 $222 +$30 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 07 $1,000 +$60 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $92,925 +$20,015 +22%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 02 $670 +$12 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $2,335 +$277 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $2,610 +$97 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $2,450 −$10 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $854 +$15 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,928 +$36 +2%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2 Jun 01 $960 +$11 +1%
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, Jun 01 $790 +$32 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $1,717 +$93 +5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $3,020 +$120 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $9,673 +$154 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,060 +$90 +8%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $1,294 +$37 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $1,233 +$22 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,100 +$20 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $2,453 +$59 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $2,543 +$206 +8%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $550 +$5 +1%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 29 $1,456 +$16 +1%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-M May 28 $200 +$20 +10%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $1,151 −$189 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $1,080 +$239 +22%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $909 −$885 -97%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15? May 19 $500 +$10 +2%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $1,396 +$33 +2%
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? May 16 $1,500 +$42 +3%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 15 $1,404 +$116 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $911 +$213 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $450 +$29 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 8? May 09 $913 +$19 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $1 +$1 +54%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 06 $924 −$803 -87%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $1,115 +$62 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 01 $858 +$36 +4%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? May 01 $760 +$62 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $389 +$64 +16%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by April 30, 2026? May 01 $800 +$34 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap May 01 $4,589 +$301 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 01 $1,037 +$55 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Elon Musk by April 30, 2026? May 01 $410 +$16 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by April 30, 2026? May 01 $123 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by April 30, 2026? May 01 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026? May 01 $1,517 +$25 +2%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? Apr 30 $583 +$112 +19%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 27 $76 −$5 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $364 +$16 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$8,731
world 31% +$285
crypto 11% +$20,018
politics 2% −$72
economics 1% −$121
tech 0% +$66
finance 0% +$103
sports 0% +$25
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $168 12h
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY Yes $2 30h
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $300 3d
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $400 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $140 4d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $500 4d
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $1,060 4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $35 5d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $5,084 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $10,181 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $20,378 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $10,886 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $12,073 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $8,774 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $6,319 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $6,227 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $3,268 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $16,943 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $14,303 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $5,002 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4,998 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6,738 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $6,664 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $7,078 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $3,233 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $3,033 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $69 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $209 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $23 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.0% -4.1% 100% 0% -4.1%
≤30d 30 +0.8% -8.8% 90% 10% +4.1%
≤90d 61 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 15% +1.8%
all 154 -3.3% -12.5% 84% 11% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 11% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 4% -12.2%
15% -28.5% 1% -20.7%
20% -35.5% 1% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,942.55 · official $34,942.55 (match) · 1614 history records