Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cae…9060 finance 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$317 (-17%) realized −$114 · open −$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%39W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$203
finance 14% −$24
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +11.6% +0.9% 26% 26% -8.5%
≤30d 114 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 27% -15.7%
≤90d 123 -1.7% -11.0% 32% 25% -18.4%
all 123 -1.7% -11.0% 32% 25% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 25% -18.4%
10% -19.6% 22% -26.2%
15% -27.3% 21% -33.3%
20% -34.5% 20% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$1,162
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$203
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses39 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)123 / 133
History coverage33d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1,355 $1,151 −$203 (-15%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? No 24¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+108%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? No 15¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+87%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? No 11¢ 9¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? No 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? Yes 44¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? Yes 58¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +113%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +92%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +288%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +469%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +122%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$11 +1106%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$7 +544%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +156%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +178%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 +$4 +171%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$5 +146%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 16? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 16? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 16? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 16? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 32h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 13¢ $698 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.87 · official $1,161.87 (match) · 238 history records