Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3cae…e877
weather · 799 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$295 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$298 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses120 / 669
Open positions10
Markets (closed)789 / 799
History coverage45d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 789 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$43
14 days−$38
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $3 $13 +$10 (+415%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 11? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 5? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C or below on May 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on May 27? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 27? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$11 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +271%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $20 −$12 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$10 +396%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$21 +540%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$7 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$54 +532%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$26 +651%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$14 +1809%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 13h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 14¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +10.8% +0.2% 23% 23% +9.4%
≤30d 507 -36.5% -42.6% 12% 12% -30.6%
≤90d 789 -13.1% -21.3% 15% 14% -21.4%
all 789 -13.1% -21.3% 15% 14% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 14% -21.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 13% -28.9%
15% -35.7% 13% -35.8%
20% -42.0% 12% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.98 · official $24.98 (match) · 2981 history records