Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cac…10b3 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$335 (+10%) realized +$15 · open +$320
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$313
14 days−$306
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$220
sports 34% +$48
crypto 4% +$24
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -30.3% -36.9% 41% 34% -28.2%
≤30d 34 -22.7% -30.1% 44% 38% -15.4%
≤90d 35 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 40% -11.5%
all 35 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 40% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 40% -11.5%
10% -34.3% 37% -20.0%
15% -40.7% 34% -27.7%
20% -46.5% 31% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,788
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$320
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions5
Markets (closed)35 / 40
History coverage35d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $1,027 $1,314 +$287 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $241 $287 +$46 (+19%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 34¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $31 +$24 +78%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $136 +$14 +10%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$62 +61%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $63 +$32 +51%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 +$21 +68%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$27 +133%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $125 +$65 +52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CA River Plate vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 +$22 +45%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $152 +$46 +30%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$48 +236%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $26 +$23 +91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $82 −$14 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $147 +$24 +17%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $140 +$157 +112%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $98 +$81 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $54 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $31 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $80 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $51 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $10 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $149 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $85 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $33 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 27h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $95 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $31 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $63 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $49 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $61 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $190 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $125 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 68¢ $48 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $152 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $12 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $102 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,787.94 · official $1,787.96 (match) · 96 history records