Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cac…f3c4 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$468 (-21%) realized −$458 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$468
14 days−$496
30 days−$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$362
sports 10% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -12.3% -20.7% 56% 56% -32.6%
≤30d 23 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 57% -30.5%
≤90d 23 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 57% -30.5%
all 23 -5.1% -14.2% 57% 57% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 57% -30.5%
10% -22.4% 52% -37.1%
15% -29.9% 48% -43.2%
20% -36.7% 39% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$114 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$458
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $77 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $17 $12 −$5 (-32%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$29 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$23 +45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $73 +$8 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$51 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $84 +$27 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $130 +$73 +56%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $122 +$108 +89%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $153 +$87 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $319 −$319 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $51 +$53 +104%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$59 +157%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$22 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $79 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $52 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $60 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $37 47h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $73 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $49 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $84 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $330 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $130 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $92 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $122 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $49 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $104 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $319 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $111 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $37 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 10d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.12 · official $115.12 (match) · 63 history records