Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3caa…f8fd politics 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%12W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
politics 23% $0
other 17% $0
sports 11% $0
culture 9% +$1
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 55 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage309d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $33 +$1 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $63 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $35 −$3 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 25 $7 $0 +4%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Aug 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Aug 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $7 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 22 $37 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 21 $47 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 20 $47 +$1 +3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 19 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $30 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $10 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $4 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $29 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $29 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $18 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $31 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 20d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $32 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 81¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.20 · official $29.20 (match) · 155 history records