Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3ca9…698d sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,169 (-3%) realized −$4,282 · open +$113
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%38W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,078per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1,052est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,509now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,915
7 days−$1,874
14 days−$4,136
30 days−$650
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$2,249
other 8% −$2,774
crypto 1% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.3% -17.1% 64% 64% -17.0%
≤30d 30 -5.7% -14.7% 70% 63% -9.3%
≤90d 59 -12.4% -20.7% 64% 59% -12.6%
all 59 -12.4% -20.7% 64% 59% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 59% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 34% -21.0%
15% -35.2% 22% -28.6%
20% -41.6% 14% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$697 vs −$1,494 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$2,509
Realized−$4,282
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses38 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,052
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2,078
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 74¢ 78¢ $2,396 $2,509 +$113 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,807 +$1,323 +73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,029 −$3,015 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $4,755 +$758 +16%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,315 +$2,435 +105%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $2,050 +$271 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,834 +$216 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,077 +$755 +70%
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez Jun 19 $908 +$172 +19%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $1,376 −$1,364 -99%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $2,006 −$1,981 -99%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $1,463 −$1,444 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $927 −$917 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $619 +$309 +50%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $457 +$163 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,091 −$2,069 -99%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $550 +$117 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,846 +$133 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Beatriz Haddad Maia May 24 $2,593 −$2,570 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $2,582 +$1,349 +52%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 24 $3,424 +$135 +4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $6,974 +$1,440 +21%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $5,826 +$1,150 +20%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America S May 23 $3,990 +$1,839 +46%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Learner Tien May 23 $1,996 −$1,958 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $2,027 −$1,970 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $5,784 +$1,069 +18%
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream May 23 $4,972 +$816 +16%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Sto May 22 $3,571 +$1,220 +34%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Conquest of Prague May 22 $2,599 +$966 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $5,871 +$1,702 +29%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $2,873 +$1,027 +36%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $2,590 +$2,253 +87%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $3,851 −$3,807 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2,931 +$924 +32%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $2,420 +$512 +21%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $4,072 −$1,329 -33%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Gustavo Heide vs Jurij Rodionov May 20 $1,930 −$1,904 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $1,748 +$1,280 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 18 $1,793 −$1,766 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 18 $1,304 +$61 +5%
Geneva Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Edas Butvilas May 18 $1,941 −$1,898 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $308 −$304 -99%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo end in a draw May 17 $1,103 −$1,088 -99%
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,019 −$1,016 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $901 +$119 +13%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $737 +$178 +24%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $368 −$364 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $1,000 +$144 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $2,415 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 30¢ $377 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 31¢ $29 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 81¢ $1,123 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $1,807 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $3,029 21h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Atlanta Dream 86¢ $4,755 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $2,315 30h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 88¢ $2,050 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,050 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,834 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,833 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,077 47h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez SELL Juan Estevez 100¢ $1,080 47h
Asuncion 2: Conner Huertas Del Pino vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 84¢ $908 47h
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Gustavo Almeida 72¢ $1,376 4d
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 58¢ $2,006 4d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 56¢ $450 6d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,013 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $927 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Katie Volynets 100¢ $928 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 66¢ $619 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar SELL Anna Blinkova 100¢ $620 7d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 73¢ $457 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $2,091 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Indiana Fever 99¢ $667 7d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 81¢ $550 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 100¢ $1,979 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 93¢ $1,846 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,509.35 · official $2,509.35 (match) · 128 history records