Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca7…998a other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% $0
world 26% $0
politics 17% −$1
crypto 15% −$1
sports 9% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -0.6% -10.0% 26% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage305d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $34 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $39 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 -7%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 -21%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $5 $0 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 in September? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 17 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $8 $0 -3%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $40 $0 +0%
2025 August third hottest on record? Sep 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Polish preside Sep 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 02 $44 $0 -1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 20 $45 −$1 -1%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 18 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 32m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $24 32m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $36 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 34h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $35 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $10 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $24 45h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 23d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $38 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $15 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $16 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $35 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $39 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $39 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $15 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $39 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 26d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 26d
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 273d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 273d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 273d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $5 274d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.94 · official $34.94 (match) · 168 history records