Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3ca5…7f5d crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%21W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$20
crypto 22% +$4
tech 22% +$3
culture 2% $0
world 1% $0
other 1% −$45
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 0% -11.9%
all 23 -4.7% -13.8% 91% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.0% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,227) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$37 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses21 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage194d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 01 $199 $0 +0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 30m? May 12 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 22? Apr 23 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? Apr 11 $199 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Apr 01 $229 −$28 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $227 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Celtics Mar 15 $1,235 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 14? Mar 14 $193 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? Mar 14 $1,041 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Hawks Mar 11 $1,233 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $130? Mar 07 $1,232 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $50? Feb 28 $1,230 +$1 +0%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $1,227 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January? Jan 31 $1,226 +$1 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $285? Jan 10 $1,270 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $46 $0 +1%
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $47 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $262 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $472 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 1h
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $199 31d
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 30m? BUY No 100¢ $199 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 66d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 79d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $199 86d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers SELL Clippers $2 86d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 32¢ $10 86d
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 63¢ $20 86d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $227 94d
Wizards vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 100¢ $1,235 103d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $193 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,041 105d
Mavericks vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 100¢ $1,233 107d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 2 above $130? BUY No 100¢ $1,232 112d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,230 120d
76ers vs. Suns BUY 76ers 100¢ $1,227 138d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $1,226 147d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $45 160d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 5 above $285? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,270 169d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $262 181d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 184d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $24 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $98 189d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $46 193d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $472 193d
Pump.fun all time high by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $47 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.40 · official $199.40 (match) · 50 history records