Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ca4…37a1 crypto 353 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$542 (-9%) realized −$542 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%191W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$114
14 days−$187
30 days−$195
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$447
politics 3% −$134
sports 2% −$72
world 2% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -8.8% -17.5% 57% 57% -17.2%
≤30d 159 -7.3% -16.1% 58% 55% -14.2%
≤90d 353 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 51% -20.5%
all 353 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 51% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 51% -20.5%
10% -30.1% 42% -28.1%
15% -36.9% 33% -35.0%
20% -43.1% 23% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$542
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses191 / 162
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)353 / 353
History coverage73d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 353 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$33 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$7 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $23 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $17 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $41 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 599 history records