Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3ca4…b014
crypto · 235 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,206 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,206 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,206
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses63 / 172
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage120d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $156 +$140 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$33 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$115 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$128 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 11 $8 +$7 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 11 $17 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $36 −$34 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 04 $118 −$115 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 04 $146 −$139 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 02 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Apr 02 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 02 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 02 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 02 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 02 $12 −$11 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 02 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 31 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 31 $38 −$36 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 31 $92 −$87 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 31 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Mar 31 $90 +$188 +209%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 31 $139 +$69 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 14 $8 −$7 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$2,206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 56% +0.4%
≤30d 16 +5.6% -4.5% 56% 56% +0.4%
≤90d 39 -37.5% -43.5% 31% 31% -37.7%
all 235 -21.1% -28.6% 27% 26% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 26% -24.6%
10% -35.4% 25% -31.8%
15% -41.7% 23% -38.4%
20% -47.4% 20% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2100 history records