Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3ca2…073b other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized +$131 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$2,390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$16
world 5% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤90d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
all 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.3% 100% +44.3%
10% +30.5% 100% +30.5%
15% +17.9% 100% +17.9%
20% +6.3% 100% +6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,390
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,472 $1,370 −$102 (-7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $260 $258 −$2 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $170 $168 −$2 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $140 $104 −$36 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $221 +$131 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $173 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $263 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $22 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $27 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $847 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $331 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 94¢ $352 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 58¢ $221 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,389.95 · official $2,396.35 (match) · 26 history records