Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3ca1…ee3f crypto 243 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$680 (+15%) realized +$592 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%74W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$303
7 days+$323
14 days+$203
30 days+$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,000
other 33% −$492
crypto 13% −$125
tech 3% −$45
world 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +4.8% -5.2% 29% 28% +0.6%
≤30d 236 -5.6% -14.6% 31% 31% -4.6%
≤90d 236 -5.6% -14.6% 31% 31% -4.6%
all 236 -5.6% -14.6% 31% 31% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 31% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 30% -13.7%
15% -30.2% 29% -22.0%
20% -37.1% 28% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$592
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses74 / 162
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions5
Markets (closed)236 / 243
History coverage15d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 78¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 34¢ 58¢ $25 $43 +$18 (+73%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $20 $35 +$15 (+73%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $178 +$49 +27%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $30 +$22 +72%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$3 -16%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $15 +$57 +369%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $31 +$107 +348%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 +$71 +162%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $42 +$28 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 +$100 +142%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$21 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $86 +$24 +28%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $179 +$116 +65%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +436%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$42 +137%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $230 +$195 +85%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $79 +$53 +67%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 −$5 -33%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $31 −$2 -8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $22 +$56 +250%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 76¢ $222 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 10h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $152 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $17 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $20 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $30 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 85¢ $20 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 73¢ $52 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $15 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $138 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $31 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $115 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $44 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 91¢ $50 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $171 25h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 36¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.36 · official $283.36 (match) · 651 history records