Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3c9f…c5dc other 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$10 (+10%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤90d 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
all 1 +47.8% +33.7% 100% 100% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 100% +33.7%
10% +20.9% 100% +20.9%
15% +9.2% 100% +9.2%
20% -1.5% 0% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 93¢ 92¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals No 98¢ 96¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $20 +$9 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $23 26m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 93¢ $25 1h
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 40h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.94 · official $76.94 (match) · 5 history records