Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c9d…f962 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$11
world 6% $0
sports 5% −$24
economics 2% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.1% -54.8% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 13 -22.7% -30.1% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 49 -13.0% -21.3% 33% 4% -10.2%
all 49 -13.0% -21.3% 33% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 4% -10.2%
10% -28.8% 2% -18.8%
15% -35.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -42.0% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage90d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-17%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $197 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $297 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $222 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $229 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $331 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $100 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $340 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $108 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $338 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 10 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $120 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $354 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $120 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $222 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $15 +$3 +23%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 25 $114 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $114 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $10 +$1 +7%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $7 +$1 +10%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $7 $0 +6%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $7 $0 +5%
Hawks vs. Nets Apr 04 $6 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $6 $0 +3%
Jazz vs. Suns Apr 02 $6 $0 +9%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Mar 28 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $97 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $97 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 8d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $84 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $84 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 11d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 14d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $100 26d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.26 · official $110.26 (match) · 177 history records