Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c99…3cc4 weather 779 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$498 (+20%) realized +$500 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%34W / 490L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day286.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$242
14 days+$909
30 days+$909
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -29.4% -36.1% 5% 5% +3.8%
≤30d 524 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 6% +33.3%
≤90d 524 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 6% +33.3%
all 524 -11.7% -20.1% 6% 6% +33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 6% +33.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 6% +20.5%
15% -34.7% 6% +8.9%
20% -41.1% 6% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +59% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$3 · ×23.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$500
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses34 / 490
Open positions16
Markets (closed)524 / 779
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day286.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 524 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 29? Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +215%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 30? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on May 31? Jun 17 $0 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 4? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 27? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on May 27? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on May 31? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 4? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 1? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C or higher on May 27? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 5? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 28? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 1? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 4? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 3? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 8m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $64 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $24.60 (match) · 3500 history records