Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c99…05f6
crypto · 1323 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$6,767 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6,787 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$475
Realized+$6,787
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses650 / 522
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1172 / 1323
History coverage12d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day255.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,263
7 days−$934
14 days+$6,787
30 days+$6,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $266 $250 −$16 (-6%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $229 $225 −$4 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$11 -216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$3 -313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$5 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$4 -125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$9,171
sports 2% −$4
other 1% +$452
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $272 3h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $234 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 743 -4.4% -13.5% 49% 48% -21.1%
≤30d 1172 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 55% +9.1%
≤90d 1172 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 55% +9.1%
all 1172 +8.6% -1.7% 55% 55% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover255.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 55% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 53% -1.3%
15% -19.7% 51% -10.9%
20% -27.6% 48% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.19 · official $475.19 (match) · 3500 history records