Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c96…f26a sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$2,363 (+8%) realized +$2,342 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%57W / 26L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$190
world 22% +$467
other 15% +$260
sports 11% +$693
crypto 6% +$560
tech 5% +$589
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤30d 16 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -10.9%
≤90d 16 -12.0% -20.4% 38% 38% -10.9%
all 83 +0.8% -8.8% 69% 46% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 46% -2.4%
10% -17.6% 34% -11.7%
15% -25.5% 25% -20.3%
20% -32.8% 16% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$142 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$2,342
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses57 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage512d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $75 $89 +$14 (+19%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 51¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$2 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 +$29 +68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $103 −$72 -70%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$30 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $132 +$157 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $108 −$58 -54%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $31 −$31 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $80 −$68 -85%
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Sep 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Will RFK Jr. find the cause of Autism before November? Sep 07 $69 +$10 +15%
BLAST Open: FaZe vs. G2 Sep 05 $540 +$460 +85%
BLAST Open: Spirit vs. G2 Sep 02 $143 +$408 +285%
EWC Cs2: The MongolZ vs. Vitality Aug 23 $34 −$26 -76%
Will Spirit win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 17 $24 +$8 +35%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Aug 17 $148 +$52 +35%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $50 −$42 -83%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Aug 01 $432 +$183 +42%
US forces in Iran before August? Jul 20 $2,626 +$211 +8%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Jul 12 $306 +$121 +40%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 10 $73 −$73 -100%
Trump x Epstein files made public in June? Jul 04 $1,880 +$114 +6%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 04 $1,281 +$219 +17%
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament Jun 23 $379 +$26 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June? Jun 22 $870 +$10 +1%
Will MOUZ win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournament? Jun 22 $23 +$5 +23%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZ Jun 22 $168 +$75 +44%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitality Jun 21 $144 +$56 +39%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FaZe vs. The MongolZ Jun 21 $215 +$285 +133%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: NAVI vs. Vitality Jun 20 $208 +$10 +5%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: FURIA vs. paiN Jun 20 $129 +$21 +16%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZ Jun 20 $258 −$258 -100%
Will @realDonaldTrump be suspended by Friday? Jun 17 $665 +$22 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Jun 03 $243 −$241 -99%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 24 $594 +$473 +80%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 19 $147 −$147 -100%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 10 $317 +$43 +14%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Mexico before May? May 06 $611 +$51 +8%
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May? May 06 $1,431 −$1,310 -92%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May? May 01 $357 +$80 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $48 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 1¢ $1 2h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 66¢ $30 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $20 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 51¢ $20 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $20 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $22 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $20 33h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 65¢ $51 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 33¢ $16 38h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 26¢ $13 38h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $103 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 32¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 53¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $132 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $7 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $41 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 63¢ $49 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $76 3d
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Della Maddalena 27¢ $31 213d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Weili 8¢ $1 213d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Weili 8¢ $5 213d
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Weili 8¢ $6 213d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.93 · official $145.93 (match) · 366 history records