Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:32:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c91…9af7
world · 98 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$264,765 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$154,613 · open +$26,316
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$299,527
Realized+$154,613
Unrealized+$26,316
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses69 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$813
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage174d
Avg bet$25,778
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 12 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,816
7 days+$9,768
14 days+$12,763
30 days+$13,494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $87,400 $94,474 +$7,074 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 86¢ $66,618 $80,584 +$13,965 (+21%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $54,051 $57,681 +$3,630 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $32,135 $33,499 +$1,364 (+4%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $13,872 $14,381 +$509 (+4%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $13,470 $13,360 −$110 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $2,610 $2,616 +$6 (+0%)
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $1,302 $1,178 −$124 (-10%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $700 $720 +$20 (+3%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 69¢ 74¢ $478 $507 +$29 (+6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $496 $435 −$61 (-12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 20¢ 23¢ $79 $92 +$13 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13,120 +$8,816 +67%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $3,982 +$952 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $31,944 +$2,995 +9%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $137 −$137 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $168 +$132 +79%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $831 −$591 -71%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 21 $9,704 +$1,277 +13%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $298 +$14 +5%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 19 $895 +$35 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $28,647 +$3,970 +14%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $200 −$200 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 05 $4,465 −$1,350 -30%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 04 $3,717 +$392 +10%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 02 $74,805 +$2,663 +4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 01 $49,347 +$2,183 +4%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference? Apr 29 $4,872 +$128 +3%
Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 202 Apr 29 $8,419 +$1,581 +19%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $188,053 +$2,422 +1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 16 $511 +$39 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 09 $8,360 +$922 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $7,457 +$103 +1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 06 $6,998 −$6,897 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $37,765 −$786 -2%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $12,539 +$927 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $15,361 +$429 +3%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $4,450 +$149 +3%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $4,204 +$126 +3%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $294 +$6 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $207,243 +$12,267 +6%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $2,141 +$59 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 26 $2,652 +$182 +7%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $8,125 +$438 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 20 $2,147 +$109 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 18 $13,267 −$5,455 -41%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $474,466 −$5,269 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $19,823 +$177 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 15 $17,600 −$1,200 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 14 $21,253 +$57 +0%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 14 $27,638 +$1,359 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 10 $1,920 +$207 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $4,703 +$324 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 09 $1,779 +$79 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 08 $13,695 +$703 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 08 $924 +$3 +0%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $395 +$2 +0%
Will another country strike Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $4,050 +$104 +3%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $4,562 −$4,202 -92%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $210,008 +$2,756 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $202,623 +$6,308 +3%
Will Uranium (USD/LBS) hit $70 (LOW) by end of February? Mar 03 $138 +$4 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 62% +$29,884
world 28% +$57,341
politics 5% +$16,814
finance 2% +$67,005
sports 1% +$8,891
other 1% +$68
crypto 1% +$926
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $214 42m
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $169 43m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $399 44m
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 14h
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $112 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 24h
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 24h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $185 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $185 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $278 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $61 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $215 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $738 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $895 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $696 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,056 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $233 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,932 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $1,983 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $8,094 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $8,131 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $185 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $199 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $92 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.6% +31.7% 100% 100% +42.2%
≤30d 9 +3.4% -6.5% 78% 44% +10.5%
≤90d 35 -3.5% -12.7% 77% 23% -7.9%
all 86 +78.9% +61.9% 80% 24% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.9% 24% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here +46.4% 16% -13.9%
15% +32.2% 13% -22.2%
20% +19.3% 13% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299,526.60 · official $299,526.60 (match) · 3500 history records