Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c8d…68b1 sports 241 markets active 14h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%122W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$5
other 17% +$5
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% +1.1%
≤30d 60 +10.5% -0.0% 53% 53% +1.3%
≤90d 228 -0.1% -9.6% 51% 50% -7.1%
all 239 +0.5% -9.1% 51% 50% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 50% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 49% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 46% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 40% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses122 / 117
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)239 / 241
History coverage109d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 +$5 +119%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $2 +$3 +124%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3 +$2 +93%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$10 +180%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Marcos Giron Jun 09 $3 +$2 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $3 +$2 +97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +109%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +140%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $2 +$2 +83%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 29 $5 +$5 +86%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $3 +$2 +97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$2 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $2 +$3 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Baez vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 26 $2 +$3 +188%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 May 26 $2 +$3 +172%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $2 +$3 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 May 22 $2 +$3 +129%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) May 22 $2 +$3 +140%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $2 +$3 +101%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 May 22 $2 +$3 +124%
Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe May 21 $2 +$3 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 14h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $3 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 41h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $3 41h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 43h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 47h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tereza Valentova 41¢ $2 47h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $3 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $2 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Katie Volynets 55¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 60¢ $3 2d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar BUY Anna Blinkova 58¢ $3 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 44¢ $2 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 47¢ $2 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $3 3d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 44¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 4d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 51¢ $3 5d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $4 5d
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava BUY Emilio Nava 70¢ $4 5d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.56 · official $6.56 (match) · 532 history records