Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3c8b…a956 crypto 1994 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$828 (+5%) realized +$833 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate74%1513W / 532L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days+$375
14 days+$1,050
30 days+$1,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 800 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 39% -3.5%
≤30d 2045 +6.6% -3.6% 74% 44% -0.2%
≤90d 2045 +6.6% -3.6% 74% 44% -0.2%
all 2045 +6.6% -3.6% 74% 44% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 44% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 31% -9.7%
15% -21.2% 22% -18.5%
20% -29.0% 16% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$833
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1513 / 532
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2045 / 1994
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2045 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$5 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$2 +591%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $12 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $8 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $11 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $6 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 3500 history records