Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c8a…b45a
world · 49 markets active 10d ago
0.0score
+$116,832 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$91,274 · open +$26,157
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$549,932
Realized+$91,274
Unrealized+$26,157
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses38 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)39 / 49
History coverage704d
Avg bet$36,874
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 10 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 94¢ $188,790 $203,067 +$14,276 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $135,301 $135,608 +$307 (+0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $58,796 $63,000 +$4,203 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $49,681 $52,699 +$3,018 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $39,929 $41,971 +$2,042 (+5%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $23,426 $24,674 +$1,248 (+5%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $17,906 $18,557 +$651 (+4%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $7,985 $8,349 +$364 (+5%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,196 $1,215 +$19 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $764 $793 +$29 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 13 $10,000 +$1,346 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by March 31? Apr 01 $21,015 +$1,536 +7%
X banned in U.K. by March 31? Apr 01 $1,132 +$42 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $32,000 +$780 +2%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 01 $5,000 +$139 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $5,000 +$376 +8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $5,000 +$815 +16%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 01 $6,000 +$200 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Jan 01 $10,000 +$278 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 01 $25,108 +$2,754 +11%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $187,766 +$14,508 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 01 $247,131 +$31,704 +13%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by November 30? Dec 01 $300 +$10 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by November 30? Dec 01 $2,740 +$100 +4%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Nov 28 $10,000 +$759 +8%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $118,582 +$14,524 +12%
Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025? Aug 18 $2,621 +$241 +9%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 05 $50,753 +$3,945 +8%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits? Aug 03 $3,823 +$81 +2%
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July? Jul 03 $16,288 +$1,774 +11%
Will Russia rejoin the G7 in 2025? Jun 28 $72 +$5 +6%
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? Apr 30 $3,889 +$6 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $20,000 +$619 +3%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Apr 06 $500 +$2 +0%
Fauci extradited to Russia before April? Apr 06 $1,000 +$6 +1%
US military action against Iran before April? Apr 06 $2,000 +$60 +3%
Trudeau out in 2024? Jan 04 $900 +$10 +1%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 04 $7,000 +$524 +8%
UK civil war in 2024? Jan 04 $35,000 +$917 +3%
Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? Jan 04 $50,000 +$1,738 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? Jan 04 $52,286 +$1,497 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Jan 04 $211,829 +$16,585 +8%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Nov 06 $69,995 −$11,719 -17%
Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 05 $1,941 +$17 +1%
Biden removed via 25th Amendment? Nov 05 $10,000 +$188 +2%
Yahya Sinwar still Hamas leader before September? Nov 02 $1,000 +$73 +7%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November? Nov 02 $5,000 +$3,829 +77%
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Nov 02 $10,000 +$233 +2%
Maduro out before September? Nov 02 $10,000 +$776 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% +$64,477
other 31% +$27,421
culture 9% +$16,566
politics 8% +$8,440
tech 0% +$527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $181 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $271 17d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4,327 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $4,327 26d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $8,551 27d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8,552 27d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 28d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1,015 30d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $123 34d
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 39d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $6,986 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $6,986 42d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $3,442 42d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $3,443 42d
China x Japan military clash before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $338 42d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2,188 61d
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 62d
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $125 62d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $3,878 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $6 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $23 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +8.2% -2.1% 100% 33% -1.3%
all 39 +6.8% -3.3% 97% 18% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.3% 18% -2.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -12.2%
15% -21.0% 3% -20.7%
20% -28.8% 3% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549,932.24 · official $549,932.24 (match) · 2558 history records