Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c88…13ca crypto 1523 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,196 (-3%) realized −$4,196 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate82%1263W / 269L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day76.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 370 -5.0% -14.0% 91% 5% -10.1%
≤30d 1532 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 1532 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 9% -9.2%
all 1532 -9.7% -18.3% 82% 9% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 9% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 5% -17.9%
15% -33.2% 3% -25.8%
20% -39.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$4,196
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1263 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1532 / 1523
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$80
Trades / day76.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1532 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $176 +$24 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $197 +$3 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $165 +$35 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $196 +$4 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $176 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $198 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $79 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $29 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $197 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $26 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $22 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.00 · official $230.00 (match) · 3500 history records