Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c87…1075 sports 1513 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$265 (-4%) realized −$265 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%879W / 634L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day55.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$11
14 days−$1
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$24
sports 24% −$112
other 6% +$6
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -4.5% -13.6% 86% 7% -9.3%
≤30d 658 -8.7% -17.4% 72% 31% -10.0%
≤90d 1513 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 39% -10.7%
all 1513 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 39% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 31% -19.3%
15% -31.3% 23% -27.1%
20% -38.0% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$265
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses879 / 634
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1513 / 1513
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day55.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1513 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $150 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $116 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $150 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 26 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 15m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $35 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $15 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $35 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records