Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c83…cf0a sports 375 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,845 (-3%) realized −$5,838 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%34W / 330L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$919est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$335
14 days−$336
30 days−$434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$2,217
politics 10% −$128
world 5% −$166
other 4% −$517
weather 1% +$63
economics 1% −$10
finance 0% −$24
tech 0% −$55
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.9% -36.6% 16% 5% -27.2%
≤30d 23 -33.8% -40.1% 13% 4% -28.9%
≤90d 256 -6.1% -15.1% 10% 4% -11.1%
all 364 -4.2% -13.3% 9% 4% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 4% -10.8%
10% -21.6% 3% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 2% -27.1%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$737) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$5,838
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses34 / 330
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$919
Open positions7
Markets (closed)364 / 375
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$569
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? No 8¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Will Renovación Popular (RP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Jun 20 $26 +$18 +69%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State Jun 19 $15 −$13 -86%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -14%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $44 $0 -1%
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $16 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St Jun 13 $18 $0 -1%
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $39 −$11 -29%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $85 −$41 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $40 −$30 -75%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $680 −$7 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $420 −$7 -2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -32%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 21 $104 −$79 -77%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 21 $204 −$18 -9%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in third place in the first round of the 20 May 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $7 +$23 +333%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $8 $0 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 28 $8 $0 +6%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 28 $102 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 Apr 28 $220 −$1 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 28 $506 −$8 -2%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 28 $518 −$12 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $380 −$7 -2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Apr 28 $205 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 28 $9 $0 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $5 $0 -5%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 25 $174 −$97 -56%
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian P Apr 19 $202 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or higher on April 17? Apr 19 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 16 $202 −$2 -1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 16 $288 −$22 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 16 $745 −$43 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $1,101 −$29 -3%
Will Nate and Cassie marry in Euphoria: Season 3? Apr 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND SELL 44¢ $43 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State SELL 4¢ $2 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score AND Will United State BUY 31¢ $15 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 25¢ $26 14h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $35 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $7 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 10¢ $26 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 21¢ $31 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 6d
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 6d
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 6d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 49¢ $5 6d
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 79¢ $16 6d
Will Juan Musso be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 80¢ $16 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St SELL Yes 56¢ $11 6d
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? SELL Yes 88¢ $23 6d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 48¢ $28 6d
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 37¢ $44 6d
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 49¢ $5 6d
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St BUY Yes 56¢ $11 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 6d
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group St SELL Yes 56¢ $7 6d
Will Noni Madueke be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 65¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.25 · official $82.25 (match) · 3500 history records