Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c82…af83 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate24%14W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 72% −$14
politics 17% −$10
other 7% +$7
sports 1% −$38
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 -4.9% -14.0% 23% 14% -11.7%
all 58 -2.6% -11.9% 24% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 12% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 12% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 12% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses14 / 44
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage591d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $16 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $83 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 12 $9 +$6 +73%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $80 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $158 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $78 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $7 +$5 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $9 +$6 +62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $7 +$12 +165%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 +$8 +104%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bruins vs. Panthers Apr 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 01 $46 $0 +1%
Devils vs. Rangers Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Senators vs. Capitals Mar 25 $21 +$24 +113%
Magic vs. Hawks Mar 18 $22 +$18 +79%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 05 $87 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Feb 13 $86 +$1 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 26 $13,532 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $49 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 3d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $12 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Solana reach $110 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 21d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 25d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 26d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 26d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $16 27d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 28d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $15 28d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $82 29d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $83 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.22 · official $53.22 (match) · 270 history records