Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c81…8f47
other · 103 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$880
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses54 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions40
Markets (closed)63 / 103
History coverage8d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 40 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Francisco City and County? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 90¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 97¢ 94¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? Yes 99¢ 97¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $20 $0 +2%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $40 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +60%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 44m and 48m? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 08 $40 +$1 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $45 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 7? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $45 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 +$36 +726%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 +$1 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 1 above $200? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $240 +$1 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 18% +$1
sports 17% −$65
politics 15% +$4
crypto 14% +$2
world 10% +$40
weather 10% −$2
tech 5% $0
economics 3% +$1
culture 3% +$1
finance 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 54m
Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 81¢ $10 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 70¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $20 9h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 53¢ $10 10h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 12h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 13h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? SELL No 99¢ $45 13h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $45 13h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $15 13h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $15 13h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 93¢ $15 13h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 96¢ $20 13h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 96¢ $20 13h
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A SELL Yes 99¢ $39 13h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 94¢ $15 13h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $25 13h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 13h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $40 13h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 14h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +11.7% +1.1% 87% 9% -9.8%
≤30d 63 +8.6% -1.7% 86% 8% -10.2%
≤90d 63 +8.6% -1.7% 86% 8% -10.2%
all 63 +8.6% -1.7% 86% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 8% -10.2%
10% -11.1% 8% -18.8%
15% -19.7% 8% -26.6%
20% -27.6% 6% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.70 · official $879.54 (match) · 182 history records