Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3c80…77b7 other 680 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,372 (-4%) realized −$9,369 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate72%490W / 188L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days−$1,111
14 days−$407
30 days+$1,030
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$7,394
sports 18% −$2,551
world 2% +$516
crypto 0% −$92
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -6.1% -15.0% 74% 61% -34.5%
≤30d 109 -2.6% -11.9% 79% 54% -5.2%
≤90d 377 -7.4% -16.2% 72% 49% -15.8%
all 678 -3.9% -13.1% 72% 55% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 55% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 33% -21.1%
15% -29.0% 19% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 10% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$285 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$9,369
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses490 / 188
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions2
Markets (closed)678 / 680
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$391
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 678 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $146 $145 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Cabo Verde 80¢ 78¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $32 +$18 +54%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $75 +$25 +33%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 +$19 +61%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $128 +$52 +41%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$14 +39%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $188 +$12 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $248 +$52 +21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $46 +$4 +9%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 +$46 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $72 +$28 +39%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $146 +$14 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 +$36 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $63 +$12 +19%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $450 −$406 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $136 −$136 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $352 −$352 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $332 +$68 +20%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $402 −$400 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $205 +$25 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$99 +10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $332 +$168 +51%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $357 +$43 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $308 +$92 +30%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $43 −$43 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $591 +$9 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $328 +$72 +22%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $200 +$20 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $272 +$128 +47%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $194 +$6 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $134 +$66 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $88 +$18 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $156 +$44 +28%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $130 +$13 +10%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $400 +$25 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $598 +$132 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $66 55m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $80 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 80¢ $80 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $81 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $75 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $38 7h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $38 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $32 9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $31 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $60 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $56 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $72 26h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 90¢ $90 26h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 30h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 75¢ $75 30h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 72¢ $36 47h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $7 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $49 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $6 2d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $8 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $35 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 94¢ $40 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 94¢ $25 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 94¢ $75 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 94¢ $47 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $32 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $134 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $178 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $46 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.85 · official $223.85 (match) · 3500 history records