Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3c7f…4c60 sports 1112 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$731 (+2%) realized +$721 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%585W / 517L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$356est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$359now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$152
14 days−$23
30 days−$1,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$828
other 19% −$351
world 0% +$6
finance 0% +$20
weather 0% −$29
culture 0% −$9
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 41% -14.9%
≤30d 216 -21.8% -29.3% 39% 35% -27.2%
≤90d 1102 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 50% -8.2%
all 1102 -3.2% -12.4% 53% 50% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 50% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -17.0%
15% -28.5% 40% -25.0%
20% -35.5% 35% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$359
Realized+$721
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses585 / 517
Est. fees paid−$356
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1102 / 1112
History coverage84d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 54¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-3%)
Noskova vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 Under 52¢ 74¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+42%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 31¢ 32¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5 Under 44¢ 40¢ $51 $46 −$5 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Juan Estevez 36¢ 32¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zarazua vs. Thamm: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide Jun 20 $24 +$32 +134%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $20 +$35 +176%
Ghibaudo vs. Biryukov: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $98 +$69 +70%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $51 +$29 +57%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $19 +$32 +165%
Alexander Zverev vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Dublin: Henry Searle vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 19 $43 −$43 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Ribecai vs. Acosta: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $64 +$60 +93%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $50 +$15 +31%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $51 +$13 +26%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 +$36 +105%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $49 +$34 +70%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $40 +$33 +83%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Jay Clarke Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $82 +$4 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 +$64 +134%
Simakin vs. Vasami: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Poznan: Norbert Gombos vs Olle Wallin Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Brescia: Danka Kovinic vs Miriam Bulgaru Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Elena Ruxandra Bertea Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $25 +$34 +134%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Petr Bar Biryukov vs. Stefano Travaglia: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Noskova vs. Eala: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 1h
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 44¢ $52 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $76 8h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 8h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 37¢ $5 10h
Zarazua vs. Thamm: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 10h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 36¢ $2 10h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 36¢ $4 10h
Zarazua vs. Thamm: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 58¢ $7 10h
Ghibaudo vs. Biryukov: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 10h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 35¢ $11 10h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Gustavo Heide BUY Gustavo Heide 42¢ $24 10h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall BUY Abedallah Shelbayh 35¢ $20 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Camila Osorio 43¢ $26 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 55¢ $41 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 19h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $12 25h
Ribecai vs. Acosta: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 33h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 47¢ $29 34h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 63¢ $51 34h
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Max Alcala Gurri 37¢ $19 34h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 54¢ $43 34h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $51 34h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $64 46h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 51¢ $33 46h
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Martyna Kubka 49¢ $4 46h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $51 46h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. South BUY 23¢ $28 2d
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Gerard Campana Lee 34¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $358.88 · official $399.00 · 3123 history records