Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c7f…fddb sports 646 markets active 2h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$22 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%460W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$41
other 10% +$31
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.6% -17.3% 63% 63% -9.9%
≤30d 38 -13.7% -22.0% 61% 61% -11.7%
≤90d 344 -31.6% -38.1% 47% 47% -15.5%
all 645 -1.9% -11.2% 71% 71% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 71% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 50% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 28% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses460 / 185
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)645 / 646
History coverage192d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 56¢ $29 $23 −$6 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$14 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +36%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$8 +32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$6 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $45 −$45 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $19 +$16 +84%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 +$6 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: O/U 2.5 May 24 $25 +$7 +26%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $6 −$6 -99%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 0.5 May 24 $13 −$12 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5 May 23 $25 −$25 -99%
IK Start vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 1.5 May 20 $13 +$2 +12%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $25 +$8 +32%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $16 +$15 +97%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $22 +$5 +24%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $22 +$4 +17%
NEC vs. Go Ahead Eagles: Both Teams to Score May 17 $13 +$7 +55%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score May 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5 May 17 $21 −$21 -99%
PEC Zwolle vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: Both Teams to Score May 17 $12 −$12 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5 May 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $36 +$9 +26%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: O/U 1.5 May 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $13 +$9 +70%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $12 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $29 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $15 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $15 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $15 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $25 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $25 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $4 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $45 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $14 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $9 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $15 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $7 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $7 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 7d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $6 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.07 · official $23.08 (match) · 1242 history records